The UAB Index of Tourism Activity has practically become the main tool of analysis of the tourism situation in Catalonia. By now, the index has experienced seventh editions (in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007 and) with constant improvement in its content.

The new UAB Index of Tourism Activity 2008, which is now in its 7th edition. The index has become an important subject for debate on the future of the tourism industry among all its participants, as its increasing impact and its nature prove.

Once more, the commitment to improvement of the product will be accurately reflected in the 2008 edition; this evident in two items.

• More attention paid to the analysis of the situation all over Spain. For example, reflecting a new wave of forecasts all over the country.

• Analysis of different aspects of the tourism sector with an academic focus.

Taking this into account, the study analyzes the process of job creation quantitatively in both the Spanish and regional tourism sectors, and also analyses seasonality. We feel then that the Index has culminated its transformation, which started in 2005, by moving from a collective assessment of tourism in Catalonia to one which covers all Spain, and also includes academic monographs.

This apart, the new Catalonia Hotel Activity Report 2007 assesses the situation of the Catalan hotel sector by means of quantitative economic indicators in the four Catalan provinces. The situation is analysed differently in each province through a group of tourist resorts and a forecast for hospitality demand for 2008 is made.

The 2008 UAB Index of Tourism Activity

Market maturity and economic slowdown are reflected in only a slight increase of tourism activity in Catalonia, at around 0.2% in 2008, which is clearly lower than in previous years. This data is compiled in the seventh edition of The UAB Index of Tourist Activity, which predicts evolving tourism demand and is now a well known indicator in the tourism sector. This year the Index includes an analysis of the intensity of job creation in tourism and the seasonal concentration of tourism demand in Spain, as well as a forecast for Spain for the second consecutive year.

Forecast for Catalonia

The UAB Index of Tourist Activity shows an increase in inbound tourism activity of 0.2% for 2008, which confirms the clear trend toward stagnation. Catalonia will still be the autonomous community which receives the most overseas visitors (16.4% in 2007) but a large part of its main markets (Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Belgium and Holland) is undergoing slowdown.

Forecasts for 2008 predict an increase of 2.7% in overseas tourists but once again average length of stay is down by 4%. Average daily spending, however, is predicted to increase by 1.3%.

Forecast for Spain

The slowdown in Spain is less accentuated than in Catalonia. In 2008, more than 60 million overseas visitors are expected, a growth rate of 2.3% compared to 2007. All the large outbound markets would show an increase, especially Italy and Portugal.

In terms of overnight stays, the predicted increase is a 1.8%, which is a lower figure than in previous years.

Despite this slight growth, the real problem is still reduced real spending, which means a low rate of tourist activity. In this sense real overseas tourist spending is only forecast to increase by 1.2% which, together with the predicted increase in tourist numbers, would all add up to another drop in real spending per foreign tourist by 1.1%, in line with last year.

Employment and seasonality

The UAB Index has two new sections this year. The one in chapter 4 is a comparative and sectorial analysis of the intensity of job creation in the Spanish tourism industry in the last few years. As well as revealing the lack of elasticity in the sector, it also shows that 10% of the average increase of employment in Spain (3.2% between 2000 and 2005) is due to tourism. The Balearic and Canary Islands are the main contributors with a rate of around 15%.

The other novelty, to be found in chapter 5, is an analysis of seasonal concentration of tourism demand in Spain and its regions. This phenomenon is known as seasonality and is one of the main defining features of the tourism industry. As an indicator of tourism demand, overnight stays between 1999 and 2005 have been used. The main conclusions of the study show a certain standstill in the degree of seasonal concentration of demand, a divergence between autonomous communities with the Balearics and the Canaries displaying more concentration, and a positive correlation between seasonal concentration and growth in demand.