Tourism activity in Catalonia stagnates
The Catalan tourism market only increases by 0.2% compared to 2007 and the slowdown is more pronounced than Spain's.
Market maturity and economic slowdown are reflected in only a slight increase of tourism activity in Catalonia, at around 0.2% in 2008, which is clearly lower than in previous years. This data is compiled in the seventh edition of The UAB Index of Tourist Activity, which predicts evolving tourism demand and is now a well known indicator in the tourism sector. This year the Index includes an analysis of the intensity of job creation in tourism and the seasonal concentration of tourism demand in Spain, as well as a forecast for Spain for the second consecutive year.
The UAB Index of Tourist Activity shows an increase in inbound tourism activity of 0.2% for 2008, which confirms the clear trend toward stagnation. Catalonia will still be the autonomous community which receives the most overseas visitors (16.4% in 2007) but a large part of its main markets (Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Belgium and Holland) is undergoing slowdown. Forecasts for 2008 predict an increase of 2.7% in overseas tourists but once again average length of stay is down by 4%. Average daily spending, however, is predicted to increase by 1.3%.
In terms of overnight stays, the predicted increase is a 1.8%, which is a lower figure than in previous years. Despite this slight growth, the real problem is still reduced real spending, which means a low rate of tourist activity. In this sense real overseas tourist spending is only forecast to increase by 1.2% which, together with the predicted increase in tourist numbers, would all add up to another drop in real spending per foreign tourist by 1.1%, in line with last year. Employment and seasonality
The UAB Index has two new sections this year. The one in chapter 4 is a comparative and sectorial analysis of the intensity of job creation in the Spanish tourism industry in the last few years. As well as revealing the lack of elasticity in the sector, it also shows that 10% of the average increase of employment in Spain (3.2% between 2000 and 2005) is due to tourism. The Balearic and Canary Islands are the main contributors with a rate of around 15%. The other novelty, to be found in chapter 5, is an analysis of seasonal concentration of tourism demand in Spain and its regions. This phenomenon is known as seasonality and is one of the main defining features of the tourism industry. As an indicator of tourism demand, overnight stays between 1999 and 2005 have been used. The main conclusions of the study show a certain standstill in the degree of seasonal concentration of demand, a divergence between autonomous communities with the Balearics and the Canaries displaying more concentration, and a positive correlation between seasonal concentration and growth in demand.
The UAB Index of Tourism Activity has been compiled by a group of lecturers researchers and collaborators from the Dept of Applied Economics and Business Management at the University School of Tourism and Hotel Management at the Autonomous University of Barcelona, under the leadership of the economist Juan Antonio Duro.
Forecast for Spain Forecast for Catalonia |
