• Fewer than 100 million overnight stays for the first time since 2003.
• Spain will lose more than 3.8 million overseas tourists.
• The development of rural tourism is highlighted.

The UAB Index of Tourist activity forecasts that by the end of 2009 tourist activity in Catalonia will have decreased by 5.7% mainly due to a reduction in the arrival of tourists from Italy, France and Germany.
It is also forecast that tourism in Spain will be affected by a fall in the number of overseas visitors to the tune of 3.8 million tourists. This study, whose main feature is a prediction of tourism activity for the whole year, is now in its eighth year. Besides, the 2009 edition contains two new features: an analysis of future perspectives for rural tourism in Spain and an analysis of innovation in the Spanish tourism industry. Whereas the former is undergoing a process of diversification and spectacular growth of its offer, the latter has received little attention by scholars until now.

1. A fall in the number of tourists and overnight stays in Catalonia

According to the index, tourist activity in Catalonia will fall by 5.7%, which affects the economy greatly if one bears in mind that the tourism sector represents 10% of Catalan employment and GNP. On the other hand, the study indicates that the average length of stays has stabilized and spending per tourist is on the increase.

The amount of overseas visitors will fall by 9.6%, reaching lower levels than in 2005. A breakdown by nationalities shows a decrease in Italian visitors (22%), French (13.9%) and Germans (10.4%). The study shows that part of this decrease is due to a decline in the increase of demand.

Overnight stays will decrease for the third consecutive year and by 9.4%, which is double the 2008 decrease. For the first time since 2003 there will be fewer than 100 million overnight stays in Catalonia, with a sharp fall in Italian visitors (31%) and French visitors (16%).

Tourist spending in Catalonia will decrease by 6% but spending per tourist will increase (€706, which represents 4% growth compared to 2008) as will spending per tourist per day (€95.7, which is 3.8% more than in 2008). The report suggests that this could be due to the fact that the slump in tourist numbers occurs among visitors with low or low to average spending power.

2. A decrease in Spain too

Forecasts for the Spanish tourism industry are also negative. According to the index, 58.3 million overseas tourists are expected to arrive. That is to say, 3.8 million fewer than in 2008 or in other words, a 6.7% decrease. The number of overnight stays will fall by 7.4% and total spending per tourist by 6.5%. It is noteworthy that the decrease affects the two main outbound markets in Spain (the British and the German) with a decrease of 7.1% and 5.7% respectively.

The study also notes that tourism is an industry affected by particular overseas changes and also that apart from the fact that the crisis has affected outbound markets, the tourism industry was already undergoing a process of deceleration, which was rapidly reaching saturation point.

3. Changes in the industry-wide situation

The index also contains information about the international situation of the tourism industry. According to the report, the volume of overseas tourists worldwide underwent a slight increase of 1.9% during 2008 to reach the figure of 924 million.

Tourism has undergone a decade of growth. Between 2000 and 2008, the worldwide number of tourists increased at a rate of more than 4% per year. During this time, which coincided with the emergence of budget airlines, demand has grown due to the democratization of the phenomenon; that is to say, most of the population are now able to travel.

Spain is the second inbound market in the world after France, followed by the United States and China respectively.

4. Rural tourism: a maturing industry

Rural tourism in Spain is in a phase of consolidation. Offer has increased spectacularly in most autonomous communities and the number of rural tourism establishments trebled between 2001 and 2008. Besides, the offer has become more diverse with the appearance of numerous extra activities, which make it more than just an accommodation contract According to the report, this industry does not suffer seasonality as other types of tourism do, such as “sun and beach” tourism and most guests are Spanish from large cities. Data collected during the study indicates that there is a large potential demand and the offer is becoming more and more specialized in response to the high quality sought after by consumers. On the other hand, the study points out the risk the industry is in risk of offering excessively artificial products.

5. E-commerce leads innovation in the tourism industry.

In general tourism is not considered to be innovative because innovation tends to be associated with industry. However, tourism produces intangible goods and experiences with the direct involvement of consumers. In other words, it has its own model of innovation.

The hospitality industry is especially noteworthy as a driving force of e-commerce, ahead of the music industry and electronic articles. Online reservation of hotel rooms and flights (especially on budget airlines) has been the key to the impact of IT on the tourism industry.